By Milounee Purohit
BENGALURU (Reuters) – India consumer price inflation is forecast to have edged down to a four-month low just above 5% in February on moderating food price rises, according to a Reuters poll of economists.
Despite price pressures easing over the past few months, inflation in Asia’s third-largest economy has remained above the 4% mid-point of the central bank’s inflation tolerance band of 2%-6% since September 2019.
Rises in food prices, which make up almost half of the consumer price index (CPI) basket and experience sharp swings often due to uneven monsoons, have recently outpaced overall inflation.
A Reuters poll of 42 economists taken March 4-7 predicted consumer price inflation eased to 5.02% in February on a year earlier, only a touch lower than January’s 5.10% rate.
“Unsurprisingly, we expect food inflation to be the main factor in driving headline inflation lower,” said Kunal Kundu, economist at Societe Generale, adding this was likely as a result of significantly lower prices for tomatoes, onions and potatoes, all in typical Indian shopping baskets.
A majority of economists expected inflation to be lower than what it was in January, just over one-third said the inflation rate had risen or remained the same.
“We forecast CPI inflation rose slightly, to 5.3%, in February, with a modest sequential rise in food and core prices. Price pressures largely remain in check, and food prices are coming off gradually,” wrote Rahul Bajoria, chief India economist at Barclays.
“This should keep the RBI on the sidelines for longer, with no urgency to cut rates given robust growth.”
Inflation was not expected to return to the RBI’s mid-point target at least until 2026, according to a recent Reuters survey on the longer-range outlook, as upside risks to food inflation remain.
That recent poll also found the central bank is expected to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 6.50% at least until mid-year given that upside risks to inflation remain.
“The government emphasised its desire to narrow the fiscal deficit…it will cut subsidies by 7.8% across food, fuel and fertilisers in April,” said Aditi Raman, associate economist at Moody’s Analytics.
“Given the large weightage of food and fuel on India’s consumer price index, this could drive up headline inflation in the coming months.”
The poll also estimated core inflation in India, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, was likely at 3.50% in February, according to the median forecast of 26 economists. The Indian government does not release core inflation figures.
(Reporting by Milounee Purohit; Polling by Anant Chandak and Susobhan Sarkar; Editing by Ross Finley and Elaine Hardcastle)
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