By Tom Balmforth
LONDON (Reuters) – Moldova’s citizens vote on Sunday in a presidential election and an EU referendum that come at a pivotal moment in the tussle between Russia and the West for the future of the poor, landlocked southeast European nation of under 3 million people.
As the war in Ukraine rages to the east and turns the political and diplomatic spotlight on the former Soviet republic, it has accelerated its push to escape Moscow’s orbit and embarked on the long process of EU accession talks.
Pro-Western president Maia Sandu hopes to advance her agenda by both winning a second term and securing a “Yes” in a referendum to affirm EU accession as a strategic goal in the constitution.
Polls tip Sandu to win and suggest that a majority support joining the EU, while the government has accused Russia and its proxies of trying to influence the electoral process by paying tens of thousands to vote the other way.
“It’s a calculated, large-scale effort aimed at destabilising our future and derailing Moldova’s EU path,” Sandu’s foreign policy adviser Olga Rosca told Reuters, citing estimates that over 100 million euros had been sent to manipulate the votes.
Police say a network managed by Russia bribed 130,000 voters to vote “No” and back candidates they prefer – which, according to Chisinau-based political analyst Valeriu Pasha, represents almost 10% of normal voter turnout.
Police have also said crime groups backed by Russia want to disrupt the vote, even by seizing state buildings, while last month authorities blocked a slew of Russian online news sites.
RUSSIA SAYS ITS FRIENDS IN MOLDOVA NEED REPRESENTATION
At a briefing this week, the Kremlin denied Russia was meddling in Moldova. But it said it believed many Moldovans wanted good ties with Moscow and were being denied the right to have the media outlets and politicians they wanted.
Among the leading pro-Kremlin figures is Ilan Shor, a tycoon jailed in absentia for fraud who lives in Russia. Two of his political parties have been banned or barred from running after being legally branded unconstitutional or on national security grounds.
Shor, who has been placed under U.S. sanctions for alleged election interference on behalf of Russia, has offered to pay people to persuade others to vote “No” in the referendum and to back a rival to Sandu, as well as carrying out unspecified other “tasks”. He denies wrongdoing, or being a Russian political proxy.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen flew to Chisinau last week to meet Sandu and urge Moldovans to take part in the plebiscite. She pledged 1.8 billion euros in financial support.
Though Sandu is expected to win a new four-year term, the vote may go to a run-off on Nov. 3 if she is unable to get 50%.
The candidate most likely to push her into a second round is Alexandr Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor-general who has urged people to boycott the referendum or vote “No”, describing it as a ruse to boost Sandu’s popularity.
Oazu Nantoi, a lawmaker for Sandu’s PAS party, told Reuters he believed Russia wanted to see the weakest result possible for Sandu in the election and the referendum.
That in turn would set the tone for next summer’s election for parliament which, crucially, approves or rejects the makeup of government after it is proposed by the prime minister.
SETTING THE TONE FOR CRUCIAL PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION
Even without a weak result on Sunday, analyst Pasha said he believed Sandu’s party faced a tough battle to retain its majority in parliament.
Sandu won a landslide in 2020 and her party captured a majority in the summer of 2021. Since then, Moldova has been buffeted by the fallout of the COVID pandemic, the war in Ukraine – which created a wave of refugees – and a sharp reduction in Russian natural gas supplies, which stoked inflation.
“I’m almost sure that the current ruling party cannot achieve a new majority because they have quite a substantial negative rating,” Pasha said.
Though a “No” vote would not be legally binding, and Pasha thought it unlikely, he said it would be hard to imagine a pro-European majority winning the election next year if it happened.
“The political consequences of a potential ‘No’ vote are really huge,” he said.
Nantoi said he believed Russia wanted to see the emergence of a similar political landscape to that of ex-Soviet Georgia, which has a parliament that is at odds with the EU and the West, and a largely ceremonial pro-Western president.
“Russia would have the possibility of controlling Moldova,” he said.
Foreign policy adviser Rosca said a firm “Yes” vote would send a clear message to Moscow “that Moldova is no longer under its influence and is charting its own path”.
(Additional reporting by Alexander Tanas; Editing by Mike Collett-White and Kevin Liffey)
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