The first couple of College Football Playoff rankings provided some fuel for banter and insight into the selection committee’s collective thought process. However, as there was a month remaining in the regular season when the first CFP Top 25 rankings were released, there were too many moving parts and hypotheticals to get overly analytical.
The third set of weekly rankings is when things start to get more serious. Rivalry week looms, conference championship races are tightening, and erstwhile playoff hopefuls are beginning to fall by the wayside.
Five takeaways from the Tuesday rankings announcement:
1. It’s good to be in the SEC
A common complaint in the early years of the Bowl Championship Series was that the two-team national championship format punished the Southeastern Conference for having too many good teams, causing them to cannibalize each other. That sentiment is alive and well with the expansion of the championship system to 12 teams.
While the SEC has only one representative ranked in the top sux — Texas at No. 3 — consider that six SEC teams are ranked No. 15 or better, six of them with multiple losses. It’s the only conference with any multiple-loss teams ranked that highly, let alone boasting several.
There are three teams ranked with three losses, and two of them — South Carolina and Missouri — hail from the SEC. While the depth leads to teams beating up on one another, it also provides more opportunities to rack up ranked wins.
A good example is Texas A&M, which is within shouting distance of the playoff at No. 15. The Aggies are 1-2 against currently ranked opponents, with one of those losses coming out of conference against Notre Dame. The other defeat was to No. 18 South Carolina, the highest-ranked three-loss team.
Texas A&M’s top win came against No. 23 Missouri, a peculiar choice to remain in the polls, given that all three of the Tigers’ losses occurred in October or November. The most recent of those defeats came last week at South Carolina, which climbed three spots on the strength of a ranked win.
2. Indiana’s margin for error
Of the nation’s three remaining undefeated teams, two have yet to face a Top 25 opponent. That changes in Week 13, and it could be a do-or-die scenario for both Indiana and Army.
Army’s pursuit of a playoff berth is inherently tenuous. The Black Knights’ hopes rest on running the table and either a power conference descending into chaos or Boise State losing. But for Indiana, could an 11-1 Big Ten team realistically be excluded from the playoff if the Hoosiers lose to Ohio State this weekend?
With another power-conference team, SMU, continuing to linger outside the playoff field at one loss, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Indiana could similarly slip. Unlike a hypothetical one-loss Indiana, however, SMU controls its conference-championship destiny.
Should the Hoosiers lose to Ohio State, they would need to beat Purdue in their finale and hope for help — specifically, losses by Penn State and Ohio State in Week 14 (or this week, in the case of the Nittany Lions) — to secure a shot at Oregon in the Big Ten title game.
SMU is one of the looming threats to pass Indiana if the Hoosiers falter, along with Boise State and several SEC teams benefiting from strong schedules.
3. Boise State should root against Colorado State
Thanks to a slip-up by the leader of one of the four power conferences in Week 12, Boise State escaped a projected opening-round playoff game and climbed to No. 4 among the top five conference champions.
To maintain its position — or potentially climb higher — Boise State would benefit from a rematch with UNLV in the Mountain West championship game. Washington State’s puzzling Week 12 loss to New Mexico erased a ranked win from Boise State’s resume, but UNLV mitigated the damage by checking in at No. 24.
If the Rebels reach 10 wins and remain in the Top 25, a second meeting with the Broncos would enhance Boise State’s case. However, for that scenario to occur, Colorado State needs to lose. The Rams, quietly undefeated in the Mountain West after a lackluster start that included blowout losses to Texas and Colorado, are 7-3 overall and nowhere near the Top 25, even if they win out.
While Fresno State may be Boise State’s most bitter Mountain West rival, Broncos fans presumably will root for the Bulldogs in their Week 13 home matchup against Colorado State.
4. Kansas is the Big 12’s biggest problem
BYU escaped precarious positions repeatedly on its way to a 9-0 start, but the law of averages — and the surging Kansas Jayhawks — caught up with the Cougars. Kansas disrupted Iowa State’s playoff hopes a week earlier, temporarily knocking the Cyclones out of the Top 25 with a 45-36 win in Kansas City on Nov. 9.
Iowa State returned to the poll this week, but at No. 22, the Cyclones are well outside the playoff picture. BYU hasn’t been eliminated yet, but its drop to No. 14, combined with Boise State inching up to No. 12, leaves the Big 12’s highest-ranked team fifth among the conference champions.
Next up for Kansas is a home game against No. 16 Colorado on Saturday. A Jayhawks win, coupled with No. 21 Arizona State defeating BYU, could conceivably leave the Big 12 on the outside looking in.
5. Plenty of head-to-head matchups loom
Starting this weekend, a series of matchups featuring Top 25 teams squaring off promises lots of movement, even without another wave of upsets.
No. 5 Indiana’s showdown with No. 2 Ohio State is the game of the week this Saturday. Meanwhile, No. 6 Notre Dame’s neutral-site clash with No. 19 Army at Yankee Stadium is a likely make-or-break moment for both teams’ playoff aspirations.
Reeling BYU visits surging Arizona State, with the winner controlling its destiny for a Big 12 championship game berth.
The following week will bring additional drama, with the renewal of the Texas-Texas A&M series and South Carolina-Clemson clash both carrying playoff implications.
Plenty can and will change, even as the playoff picture begins to take shape.
–Kyle Kensing, Field Level Media
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