BANGKOK (Reuters) – Thailand’s economy is still expected to grow between 2.4% to 2.9% this year despite intensifying global trade wars and increased competition from imported goods, a leading joint business group said on Wednesday.
Domestic demand remains weak while the strengthening of the baht poses a challenge to exports, a key driver of Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking said.
The group said it was also maintaining its export growth forecast at 1.5% to 2.5% this year, even as U.S. tariffs on China raise concerns of more global trade disruption.
Last year, exports increased 5.4% to a record $301 billion. Kriengkrai Theinnukul, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, said shipments had been boosted by stockpiling before President Donald Trump took office.
“It may not be real demand. We will wait and see how this will affect exports in the first quarter,” he told a news conference.
Kriengkrai said Thai exports could become more competitive following U.S. tariffs on other countries.
Trump has imposed tariffs on China and signalled the 27-nation European Union would be his next target, but he has suspended plans to level 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada for 30 days.
The influx of Chinese goods into Thailand remains a problem and as many as 30 industries will be affected this year if no proper measures are taken, Kriengkrai said.
“China has clearly stated that it must produce and find markets. We have to protect ourselves,” he said.
For 2024, the group estimated economic growth at 2.8%. Official growth data is due to be released on Feb. 17.
(Reporting by Thanadech Staporncharnchai and Orathai Sriring; Editing by Martin Petty and John Mair)
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