BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s industrial output slowed in January-February, while retail sales growth accelerated slightly in a mixed start for the economy this year as policymakers navigate mounting pressure from U.S. trade tariffs.
The data followed weaker-than-expected exports and inflation indicators earlier this month, as a burst of U.S. trade tariffs against key trading partners including China threatens to upend the global trade order and highlights the need for more policy support to foster a sustainable economic recovery.
China’s top leaders have maintained an economic growth target of “around 5%” for 2025, but analysts say that may be a tall order given pressure on exports, tepid household demand and a protracted property crisis.
“The data release suggests a decent momentum in the opening months, even if the economy remains in deflation,” said Tianchen Xu, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
“Retail sales growth was decent, too, reflecting the vital role of subsidies in supporting home appliance and mobile phone sales.”
U.S. President Donald Trump has piled an additional 20% of tariffs on all Chinese goods and is threatening more action. Exports were one of the lone bright spots for China’s economy last year.
China’s industrial output grew 5.9% year-on-year in the first two months, slowing from the 6.2% expansion in December, according to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). However, it was ahead of expectations for a 5.3% rise in a Reuters poll of 26 analysts.
Retail sales, a gauge of consumption, rose 4.0% in the January-February period, better than a 3.7% rise in December and marking the quickest rate since November 2024. Analysts had expected retail sales to grow 4.0%.
Household consumption in the first two months were buoyed by holiday spending during the 8-day Lunar New Year holidays, when China’s box office raked in record takings with animated hit “Nezha 2”.
China publishes data for the two months in a combined release to smooth out the impact of the Lunar New Year holidays, which fall in either of the two months.
In the annual parliament meeting earlier this month, China’s leaders pledged stronger fiscal and monetary support for the economy.
Policymakers have put expanding domestic demand as the top priority this year. Among other measures, they have lined up 300 billion yuan ($41.5 billion) for a recently-expanded consumer goods trade-in scheme for electric vehicles, appliances and other goods.
On Sunday, China’s State Council unveiled a “special action plan” to boost domestic consumption, featuring measures including increasing residents’ income and establishing a childcare subsidy scheme.
Officials from the country’s top economic ministries will brief media on consumption-boosting measures later on Monday.
The urban survey-based jobless rate in February climbed to 5.4%, the highest in two years.
Fixed asset investment, which includes property and infrastructure investment, expanded 4.1% in the Jan-Feb period from the same period a year earlier, versus expectations for a 3.6% rise. It grew 3.2% in 2024.
($1 = 7.2308 Chinese yuan renminbi)
(Reporting by Kevin Yao, Ellen Zhang and Yukun Zhang; Editing by Kim Coghill and Shri Navaratnam)
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