By Michael S. Derby
(Reuters) -The first wave of Federal Reserve officials to weigh in after this week’s policy meeting reiterated on Friday that the current economic uncertainty calls for monetary policy patience as Trump administration trade policy boosts risks to the outlook.
When it comes to the current state of Fed policy, “we’re in a good place,” New York Fed President John Williams said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. Declining to speculate where monetary policy will go amid the uncertainty, he said, “let’s collect more data, information about what’s happening with trade policy” and its impact on the economy and then decide what that means for the Fed’s next policy steps.
Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, who spoke in a separate Bloomberg Television interview, said the healthy economy “gives us time” to make more progress lowering inflation pressures before needing to consider a next step. Both Williams and Kugler described the current state of interest rate policy as placing a modest amount of restraint on economic activity.
The U.S. central bank held its benchmark interest rate steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range on Wednesday and flagged the rising economic uncertainty.
Speaking in a press conference after the end of the two-day policy meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, “despite heightened uncertainty, the economy is still in a solid position,” adding “we believe that the current stance of monetary policy leaves us well positioned to respond in a timely way to potential economic developments.”
President Donald Trump’s trade policy is the key source of uncertainty for the Fed and broader economy. In a bid to bring back more manufacturing to the U.S., Trump has slammed nations around the world, particularly China, with very high tariffs.
Many economists believe these import taxes will drive up inflation pressures from levels already above the Fed’s 2% target. At the same time, they’re likely to depress economic growth and boost unemployment. But there’s little clarity on how this will all play out, with the outlook further complicated by Trump’s constant tariff adjustments and assurances that a slew of trade deals are imminent.
Williams, speaking at a conference in Iceland before his television interview on Friday, said “my own view is I expect growth this year to be … considerably slower than it was last year, inflation to be higher, unemployment … to move up over the year.”
TRICKY TRADE-OFFS
The potential economic impact of tariffs presents substantial challenges for the U.S. central bank’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee. With monetary policy charged with keeping inflation low and the job market strong, policymakers may face difficult trade-offs in which part of the mandate most needs addressing.
Fed Governor Michael Barr, in the text of a speech to the same event in Iceland, concurred with the view that tariffs could push up inflation while depressing the job market.
“The FOMC may be in a difficult position if we were to see both rising inflation and rising unemployment,” he said. Like his colleagues, Barr said “given the economy’s strong starting point and the progress we have made in bringing inflation back toward our 2% objective, monetary policy is in a good position to adjust as conditions unfold.”
The Fed may be on track to get its first taste of how tariffs are affecting inflation on Tuesday when the U.S. government releases its Consumer Price Index for April.
“Tariffs should start to affect the inflation data in April, with clearer evidence likely in May and June,” Bank of America economists said in a research note on Friday. “We expect tariff-driven inflation to be temporary, but our conviction is low as there are good reasons why it could be more persistent than we expect.”
Even as Fed officials have noted a difficult trade-off balancing both sides of their mandates, they’ve collectively agreed that keeping inflation pressures contained is critical.
(Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Paul Simao)
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