A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Stella Qiu:
It is tariff deadline day and President Donald Trump delivered by slapping fresh levies on imports from dozens of countries, including those that do not have a trade deal yet.
Rates were set at 35% for Canada, 25% for India, 20% for Taiwan and 19% for Thailand. Switzerland got a whopping 39% — one of the steepest — raising the question: what’s Trump got against the Swiss? Not buying enough American chocolate or watches?
The big day comes after months of posturing, meetings, delays and truces, which prompted some investors to question what was a real threat and what was a bluff. Indeed, there is still much to be resolved.
Arguably, most levies are lower than those threatened on April 2, which back then sent markets into a tailspin. Plus the big trade deals with Japan and the European Union have been reached while talks with China and Mexico are still ongoing.
That is probably why market reaction this time has been much more muted. Sure, most Asian shares fell, but only modestly. South Korea is an exception, tumbling over 3%, in part due to domestic tax cuts being rolled back.
Taiwan’s president said the 20% levy is only temporary and is expected to be reduced further when a deal is reached.
Wall Street and European shares did not seem to be too bothered by the tariff news. EUROSTOXX 50 futures slipped 0.3%. Both Nasdaq futures and S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%, thanks to a 6% tumble in Amazon after its earnings failed to meet lofty expectations.
Now, with the tariff news out of the way, euro zone flash CPI is due later in the day and expectations are for a slight easing to 1.9% in July from 2.0% in annual terms. Markets have only priced in half a cut from the European Central Bank by early next year.
And then it’s all about waiting for payrolls, which will be pivotal for hopes for a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in September, which is now priced at just 40%, way off 75% a month ago.
Forecasts are centred on a 110,000 rise in July, while the jobless rate likely ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%. Any upside surprises could price out the chance of a move next month, giving dollar bulls another reason to rally.
The greenback is headed for the best week – with a gain of 2.5% against its peers – in nearly three years, solidifying its recent uptrend from a three-year low.
It has found support from a hawkish Fed that has held off policy easing on tariff risks. And indeed, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation came in a tad hotter overnight, showing some tariff impact.
Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:
— Euro zone flash CPI for July
— U.S. payrolls for July, ISM Manufacturing survey
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(Editing by Sam Holmes)
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