LONDON (Reuters) – It’s back to scouring data for signs of how quickly, if at all, further rate cuts could come from big economies, Switzerland’s central bank meets and world leaders gather in New York for the UN general assembly against a tense geopolitical backdrop.
Here’s all you need to know about the week ahead in global markets from Lewis Krauskopf in New York, Rae Wee in Singapore and Amanda Cooper, Sara Rossi and Karin Strohecker in London.
1/ BACK TO RATE CUTS
The U.S. Federal Reserve has just cut rates for the first time since December and indicated more is to come.
That’s the backdrop to the slew of U.S. data out in coming days including housing, durable goods, consumer sentiment and inflation.
Monthly reports on new and existing home sales are due as investors weigh whether the prospect of a series of rate cuts can lift the housing market.
An updated look at Q2 gross domestic product will paint more of a picture about growth, before the week closes on Friday with a consumer sentiment survey and the personal consumption expenditures price index, a closely watched inflation gauge.
As focus shifts to the economic outlook over inflation, any weaker-than-expected numbers could further hurt the dollar – it touched its lowest level since 2022 on Wednesday.
2/ A FRANC DISCUSSION The Swiss National Bank meets on Thursday and traders expect no change to the benchmark rate, currently at 0%.
SNB officials have indicated the bar is high for a drop into negative territory, even in light of the headache caused by a strong Swiss franc. It has rallied by around 15% against the dollar year-to-date and is set for its largest annual gain since 2002.
Its gain on the euro has been more modest, up around 0.5%, but it has pushed higher almost uninterruptedly against the single European currency for the last seven years, for a total rise of 30%.
For Swiss exporters, such as Nestle, Novartis or Richemont, currency strength adds to hefty U.S. tariffs. Swiss inflation has picked up, which could give the SNB more wiggle room to do nothing, for now.
3/ TARIFF BAROMETER
After a spate of central bank meetings, economies across the globe will assess the health of business activity.
In Europe, Tuesday’s preliminary estimates for the September euro zone PMI could show further improvement in the manufacturing sector and a stabilisation in expansionary territory for services.
The data should also provide more clarity on the impact of U.S. tariffs, following a mixed picture from recent figures.
If confirmed, the PMI picture would align with the European Central Bank’s optimistic economic outlook after it left rates steady at 2% in September.
Britain’s flash PMI, also out Tuesday, follows the latest BoE decision to leave rates steady. Companies’ concerns about the prospect of tax rises and the highest inflation among advanced economies should remain, even though services grew by the most in over a year in August.
4/ ABATING PRESSURES
Australia’s August consumer price reading on Wednesday comes ahead of the September 30 Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting, where officials are widely expected to stand pat on rates.
Investors and policymakers will be hoping that latest inflation figures show some signs of easing, after July’s shock 2.8% above-forecast headline reading following a surge in electricity prices.
That’s likely to be the case, given that new electricity rebates are set to be reflected in last month’s numbers and seasonal travel pressures would have faded.
August jobs data also pointed to a gradual cooling in the labour market, as employment unexpectedly fell while the jobless rate held steady.
Still, the RBA remains cautious, with Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter saying the economic outlook is balanced at the moment with risks on both the upside and downside.
5/ NOT SO UNITED NATIONS
World leaders are meeting in New York for the United Nations General Assembly at a fraught time for global politics.
There is no shortage of hot button issues at the annual gathering which will be dominated by Trump’s return to the rostrum, war in Gaza and Ukraine and nuclear tensions with Iran.
Leaders gather on Monday for a summit – hosted by France and Saudi Arabia – that aims to build momentum toward a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians.
Trump will speak on Tuesday, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – wanted by the International Criminal Court over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza that Israel denies – is due to address the assembly on Friday. Meanwhile a handful of U.S. allies are preparing to recognise a Palestinian state at the gathering.
Both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will address the assembly while a diplomatic push by Tehran seeks to avoid a return of snapback sanctions over Iran’s nuclear programme.
(Compiled by Dhara Ranasinghe; Graphics by Prinz Magtulis; Editing by Andrew Heavens)
Comments