By Joseph Ax
(Reuters) -When President Donald Trump began an extraordinary campaign this summer pressuring Republican lawmakers to redraw state congressional maps, starting with Texas, some Democrats feared it could hand a dozen new seats to Republicans in next year’s midterm elections.
Since then, however, a series of court rulings and aggressive moves by Democrats have dented Trump’s plan, leaving the eventual winners of the nationwide redistricting war unclear.
With Republicans clinging to the smallest of majorities in the U.S. House of Representatives, even small shifts from state to state could impact the race for control of Congress in 2026.
Pending court cases and ongoing redistricting discussions may still improve one party’s chances over the other, but analysts say the Republican advantage has diminished.
“I think you could argue that the parties have basically fought each other to a draw,” said Michael Li, a redistricting expert at the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University. “The Democrats have played what many people thought was a weak hand really well.”
Redistricting typically occurs once a decade to account for new U.S. Census data, and lawmakers from both parties have used that process to draw maps more favorable to their side, a practice known as gerrymandering. But Trump’s push has prompted nearly a dozen states to undertake or consider redistricting mid-decade, shattering longstanding norms.
A divided three-judge panel on Tuesday threw out the new map passed by Texas Republicans – the centerpiece of Trump’s effort – ruling that lawmakers had illegally diluted racial minorities’ voting power.
That map was designed to flip as many as five Democratic seats to the Republican ledger, though the U.S. Supreme Court could still decide to leave it in place for 2026.
Meanwhile, a handful of Republicans in Indiana and Kansas have thus far resisted threats and pressure from Trump and his allies to draw new maps. In Ohio, a Republican-led commission approved a new map that boosted Republicans but fell far short of the more aggressive redistricting some analysts had expected.
DEMOCRATS PUNCH BACK
On the Democratic side, California voters overwhelmingly approved Governor Gavin Newsom’s proposal to sidestep an independent redistricting commission and implement a new map that targets five Republican incumbents in response to Texas, a gambit even some Democrats viewed as far-fetched when he first suggested it.
Virginia Democrats are advancing their own complicated constitutional maneuver to advance a new map that would take aim at two or three Republicans. And in Utah, a judge recently found a Republican-drawn map unconstitutional and replaced it with a new plan that is all but certain to give Democrats a new representative there.
Trump’s redistricting effort was intended to brace the slim Republican House majority for significant headwinds, including his own unpopularity, a string of impressive Democratic election performances and the historical lesson that the party of the president usually loses seats in midterm elections.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment on Wednesday.
Justin Levitt, a professor at Loyola Law School and a redistricting expert, said that redistricting alone would not be enough to overcome a “wave” year.
“Redistricting is not destiny – it’s more like a seawall that can stop mild tides from coming in,” he said. “A tsunami will come right over the top of that seawall.”
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN
There remain plenty of uncertainties that could still alter the redistricting landscape ahead of the 2026 election.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said the state will appeal Tuesday’s decision to the Supreme Court. With the state’s filing deadline less than three weeks away, the court is expected to move quickly.
“Texas’ map was drawn the right way for the right reasons,” U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi said on Tuesday. “We look forward to Texas’ victory at the Supreme Court.”
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has expressed support for a new map, which could target two or three Democratic representatives. Some Democrats in Maryland and Illinois have weighed launching their own redistricting efforts.
In Missouri, where Republicans passed a new map dismantling a Democratic district in Kansas City, Democrats are trying to put the measure to a voter referendum. The new maps in California and Utah could also be subject to further judicial review.
Looming over the entire national fight is a pending case before the Supreme Court challenging a key provision of the Voting Rights Act, which protects minority voters.
A decision striking down that section in the coming months could open the door for several Republican-controlled Southern states to eliminate a half dozen Democratic seats or more.
Erin Covey, a House analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, estimated that Republicans will gain three or four seats when all is said and done – if the Texas map is eventually upheld.
A best-case scenario for Republicans could see them pick up approximately seven seats, while a best-case scenario for Democrats would hand them around a five-seat gain, she said.
“The upside for Republicans looks increasingly small,” she said.
(Reporting by Joseph Ax; Additional reporting by Brad Brooks; Editing by Paul Thomasch and Edmund Klamann)
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