By Rae Wee
SINGAPORE, Nov 2 (Reuters) – The dollar and other major currencies were in a holding pattern on Monday as investors turned their attention to this week’s US midterm elections, which could shift the balance of power in Congress and control over the federal purse strings.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin and ether rebounded slightly following last week’s record $6.3 billion heist at Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange.
Traders were bracing for a packed week dominated by the US midterm elections, October US jobs data and central bank rate decisions in Britain, Australia, Norway and Sweden.
Ahead of the week’s events, the euro was nursing losses and remained not far from a 17-month low at $1.1182 in Asian trade, weighed down by Fitch’s revision of France’s outlook to “negative” from “stable” after Friday’s close.
Sterling was little changed at $1.3394, while the dollar eased 0.15% to 101.83 against a basket of currencies.
Americans head to the polls on Tuesday to determine whether Democrats can wrest control of Congress away from US President Donald Trump’s Republican Party. Democrats are widely predicted to win the House of Representatives, but the Senate is more in doubt.
“The challenge we face in analysing election outcomes is that polling suggests strong anti-incumbent sentiment, but that does not always translate into actual election outcomes – as we have seen in Brazil and now in Israel,” said Eric Robertsen, global head of research and chief strategist at Standard Chartered.
In the event of a Democratic sweep of Congress, Robertsen said spending plans for data centres and AI infrastructure could face increasing obstacles at the state level, while the next debate on raising the US debt ceiling would be among the most contentious in recent history.
Meanwhile, Andreja Cobeljic, head of derivatives trading at AMINA Bank, said hedge funds had suffered “significant losses” in October, leaving markets with “little capacity” to absorb any surprises from the midterm elections.
In other currencies, the yen fell 0.1% to 157.73 per dollar. Japan’s real interest rates have risen recently, especially in the long- and super-long zones, the central bank said on Monday in a full version of its quarterly outlook report.
The Australian dollar eased 0.15% to $0.7022 ahead of Tuesday’s policy decision, where the Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to raise its cash rate to a near two-decade high of 4.85%.
The New Zealand dollar fell 0.26% to $0.5616, having slid 1.2% last week in the wake of its central bank’s surprise decision to leave rates unchanged.
Elsewhere, bitcoin was up 0.6% at $78,262.63, having fallen to a six-week low on Friday. Ether rose 1.14% to $2,287.18, having similarly slid to a two-month trough last week.
Binance customers pulled $3.64 billion, or 2.1% of its assets, as the world’s biggest crypto exchange resumed service after hackers stole $6.3 billion from the platform last week in a security breach that the FBI has blamed on North Korea.
The exchange moved to reassure crypto investors and said withdrawals were stabilising after an initial spike and deposit volumes had remained “substantial” after what analysts believe may be the world’s biggest financial robbery ever.
“While the incident delivered a shock to market confidence, it has not yet triggered widespread panic or a massive, concentrated withdrawal by users,” said Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey Group.
“On the one hand, the capital outflows likely include normal withdrawal and asset adjustment demands; on the other hand, some investors may not have transferred their funds to other exchanges, choosing instead to disperse asset risks through self-custody wallets or similar methods.”
(Reporting by Rae Wee; Editing by Lincoln Feast and Jamie Freed)
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