By Alden Bentley
(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.
This week’s busy global central bank agenda was manna for stock market bulls who especially welcomed the Federal Reserve decision to stand dovishly pat, for now, and a surprise Swiss National Bank rate cut deemed a foreshadowing of where its peers were heading easing-wise this year.
The question for Asia after stocks in Tokyo and Taiwan hit record highs Thursday is whether a breather is in store or another round of yet higher highs across timezones.
European stock indexes stretched deeper into uncharted territory on Thursday. Wall Street was eager to retake the baton and continued to rally to closing all-time highs. The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq took off Wednesday with renewed vigor after Fed policymakers left its fed funds target at 5.25% to 5.50%, as expected. The Fed also kept its dot plot outlook for 75 basis points in cuts this year, despite recent concerns that the median estimate would be changed to only 50 basis points of easing due to recent stubborn inflation.
Thursday’s drama was in Switzerland, where the Swiss National Bank cut its main interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.50%, a surprise that caused the currency to weaken and helped support the dollar.
Market pricing currently reflects expectations that the Fed and the European Central Bank will start cutting rates at their June meetings.
Before Japanese investors can take another run at record highs Friday, after hoisting the Nikkei 225 to one on Thursday, traders will get a read on the inflation picture from national Consumer Price Index data from February.
The Bank of Japan on Tuesday abandoned eight years of negative interest rates, with inflation exceeding the BOJ’s 2% target for well over a year and wage pressures rising.
But rates are still near zero. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda on Thursday vowed to keep supporting the economy with ultra-loose monetary policy but signaled confidence inflation was gaining momentum, a desirable trend in Japan because of its struggles with deflation and economic stagnation.
Perhaps counter-intuitively, the yen has been on the ropes since the BOJ backed off its easy policy. With no sudden rate jump appearing in the offing and volatility low, the yen carry trade still looks comfortable.
The dollar spent the U.S. trading day tucked right up under the November highs against the well-shorted yen, and within easy trading distance of the October 2022 peaks near 152 that brought BOJ intervention. Put another way, the dollar/yen pairing is only about one-quarter yen from levels last seen in mid 1990.
South Korea’s KOSPI benchmark is at two-year highs, but likewise faces February producer inflation data on Friday.
China shares, reflecting worries over the country’s property crisis, did not join the party Thursday. But Honk Kong shares rose smartly.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:
– South Korea PPI (Feb)
– Japan CPI (Feb)
– India flash PMIs (March)
(By Alden Bentley; Editing by Josie Kao)
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