A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee
Another day, another warning from Tokyo has kept a check on the yen’s slide, with the Asian currency ever so close to the 34-year low of 151.975 it touched last week, spurring repeated intervention warnings.
Those warnings have worked to an extent with the yen’s descent now at a glacial pace although the dollar/yen remains above 151 levels. It last fetched 151.745 per dollar.
Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated his warning on Tuesday to yen bears as Tokyo tries to prevent a destabilising fall in the currency.
After the initial shock of a stronger-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data that cast doubts about the timing of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, markets seems to be taking in stride the increasing evidence of the economy’s strength.
And while investors remain wary of a return of higher-for-longer narrative, most analysts suspect that the Fed is more concerned with inflation, which have eased, and the labour market, with payrolls data due later in the week.
Futures indicate European bourses are set for a higher open, with stock markets in the region reopening after holidays on Friday and Monday.
Focus will be on the pan-European STOXX 600, which closed last week at a record high and will look to start the second quarter on the front foot after clocking in a 7% gain in the January-March quarter.
A slew of manufacturing activity data across Europe along with inflation data for Germany will also take the spotlight as investors assess the health of the region’s economy.
Euro zone manufacturing activity is likely to contract in March, according to a Reuters poll, although spotlight will be on whether firms were optimistic for the year ahead. Manufacturing data for March from France, Germany and UK are also due later in the day.
Investors will parse the data to gauge when the European Central Bank may start its interest rate cutting cycle.
A growing number of ECB policymakers have supported rate reductions, with a June meeting shaping up as the most likely time for action.
All 77 economists in a Reuters poll conducted last week expected the ECB to keep the deposit rate unchanged at 4.00% on April 11. Roughly 90%, 68 respondents, forecast that the first cut would come in June.
Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:
Economic events: March manufacturing PMI data for France, UK, Germany and euro zone and Germany preliminary inflation data for March
Debt Auctions: Germany – Reopening of 2-year government debt auction; France: Reopening of 3-month, 5-month, 6-month and 1-year government debt auctions
(By Ankur Banerjee; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)
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