By Philip O’Connor
BERLIN (Reuters) – With eight teams left in the tournament the numbers around Euro 2024 are becoming clearer, with Spain, England and France all considered likely winners and a race for top scorer that is still very tight.
The Opta Analyst prediction index gives Spain a 19.48% chance of adding a fourth European championship title and a first since 2012, with England hot on their heels at 18.98% despite very unconvincing performances.
France, who have also failed to fire, are third with an 18.18% chance of winning, followed by Germany, who face Spain in the quarter-finals on Friday and are listed as having a 17.15% chance of success.
Turkey, who pulled off a stunning 2-1 win in one of the games of the tournament against Austria on Tuesday, have a mere 3.49% chance of winning the Henri Delaunay trophy, according to Opta’s statistical model.
With no striker sticking out from the pack and plenty of the world’s best already home, the race for the golden boot as the tournament’s top scorer is still very much up for grabs.
Jamal Musiala of Germany and Netherlands forward Cody Gakpo have both netted three goals, as have Ivan Schranz of Slovakia and Georges Mikaudatze, but the latter pair’s tournament is over.
Schranz also had some of the best attacking statistics in the tournament, scoring his three goals from only five attempts spread over four games, according to UEFA’s official records.
BELLINGHAM OPPORTUNITY
With Spain up next for the Germans and a tricky tie against Turkey for the Dutch, there could be an opportunity for another player to steal their thunder, and England’s Jude Bellingham could be a dark horse to be top scorer.
Brimming with confidence after a spectacular bicycle kick to force extra time against Schranz’s Slovakia in the round of 16, the 21-year-old wheeled away in celebration asking “who else?”.
The answer to Bellingham’s question may well be the Germans and either Musiala or Kai Havertz, who has recovered after a slow start to net twice, or possibly substitute striker Niclas Fuellkrug, who has also netted twice.
Unfortunately for the German attackers, they face Spain next, who have conceded only one goal and are the best performers in defence as measured by Opta’s data alongside France, who have not conceded a goal from open play.
The importance of winning the ball back high up the pitch at Euro 2024 is highlighted in the statistic for duels won in games, with Belgium winger Jeremy Doku topping the list on 61, followed by Bellingham on 52.
One player keen to improve his numbers at his final Euros is Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo, who has yet to find the net despite taking 20 shots in four games.
He will be hoping to break that duck when his side meet France in the last eight in Hamburg on Friday.
(Reporting by Philip O’Connor, editing by Ed Osmond)
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