MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexico’s year-on-year inflation likely eased in the first half of August, a Reuters poll showed on Monday, bolstering the case for the central bank to cuts its key interest rate again at its meeting next month.
The median forecast of 10 analysts estimated inflation for the first two weeks of the month at 5.33%, down from 5.52% in the second half of July but still far from the central bank’s target of 3% plus or minus one percentage point.
For the closely watched core inflation index, which strips out highly volatile products, analysts estimate a slight drop from 4.08% to 4.04% rise.
Early this month, the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 10.75% in a split decision by the bank’s governing board.
Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath, one of two board members who voted against the cut, said at an event on Friday that “the moment is already around the corner when we can lower rates more systematically.”
Banxico’s next monetary policy announcement is scheduled for September 26, a week after the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, in which policymakers are expected to begin a highly anticipated series of rate cuts.
In the first 15 days of August, headline prices likely grew by 0.13% compared with the previous 15-day period, while an increase of 0.19% is expected for the core index, according to the poll.
Mexico’s national statistics institute INEGI will published inflation data for the first half of August on Thursday.
(Reporting by Noe Torres; Additional reporting by Gabriel Burin; Writing by Brendan O’Boyle)
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