By Alun John and Dhara Ranasinghe
LONDON (Reuters) – The United States, Britain and Sweden all cut interest rates this week, even as Donald Trump’s U.S. election win introduced a fresh element of uncertainty given the threat of higher tariffs.
Seven of the 10 big developed-market central banks tracked by Reuters are in easing mode, two are keeping rates higher for longer and one, outlier Japan, is hiking.
Here’s where major rate-setters stand and what traders expect next.
1/ SWITZERLAND
The Swiss National Bank has been at the forefront of rate cuts, lowering borrowing costs three times in 2024 to 1% since it kicked off easing in March.
With inflation at its lowest level in more than three years, at just 0.6%, traders expect the Swiss National Bank to deliver another quarter point rate cut at its Dec. 12 meeting. Markets attach almost a 30% chance of a bigger half-point move.
Policymakers have suggested the SNB could consider negative rates to make the safe haven Swiss franc, whose strength has hurt exporters, less attractive to investors.
2/ CANADA
Canada is firmly in the dovish camp, having cut rates four times in a row since June. In October, the Bank of Canada cut rates by a bigger-than-expected 50 basis points (bps) to 3.75% as inflation eases below its 2% target and the economy weakens.
The BOC is tipped to cut rates again in December, with traders attaching almost 50% chance of another half-point move.
3/ SWEDEN
Sweden’s Riksbank on Thursday cut its key rate by 50 bps to 2.75%, as anticipated, and flagged another reduction in December if the economic and inflation outlooks remain unchanged.
Markets give a roughly 60% chance of a quarter point cut in December, with almost 100 bps of easing priced in by end-2025.
4/ NEW ZEALAND
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand painted a bleak economic picture in Tuesday’s Financial Stability Report, and with inflation within its 1-3% target range, is set to continue with rate cuts at a fairly aggressive pace.
The RBNZ has cut rates by 75 bps so far this cycle. Markets are fully pricing a 50 bps easing at its November meeting and see a reasonable chance of another such move in February.
5/ EURO ZONE
The ECB is firmly in easing mode, having cut rates for a third time this year in October.
Although markets price in another 25 bps cut in December, expectations for a bigger move have been scaled back given stronger than expected data. Euro zone inflation, for instance, accelerated more than expected in October and could pick up further in the coming months.
6/ UNITED STATES
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 bps on Thursday and Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. presidential election result would have no “near-term” impact on monetary policy.
The relationship between Powell and Donald Trump will be in focus as they clashed during the latter’s first term. Powell said he would not resign if asked, and that he cannot be legally removed.
7/ BRITAIN
The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 bps for only the second time since 2020 on Thursday and said future reductions were likely to be gradual, predicting the new Labour government’s budget would mean higher inflation and economic growth.
The budget, with heavy borrowing and spending, prompted investors to dial back bets on the pace of further rate cuts to just two or three more 25 bp cuts across 2025.
8/ NORWAY
Norway’s central bank remains in the hawkish camp.
It held its key policy rates at a 16-year high of 4.5% on Thursday and said they will be on hold for the rest of the year.
Norges Bank only expects rates to start declining in the first quarter — a view traders share, pricing in a quarter point rate cut then.
9/ AUSTRALIA
Also hawkish is the Reserve Bank of Australia, which held rates steady at a 12-year high of 4.35% on Tuesday and said policy would need to stay restrictive for some time.
The RBA does not see underlying inflation returning to its 2-3% target range until 2026, and markets only see a two-in-three chance of a rate cut by April 2025.
10/ JAPAN
Rising inflation prompted longtime outlier the Bank of Japan to nudge borrowing costs up to 0.25% in July, a move that wreaked havoc on global trades that were underpinned by its ultra-loose monetary policies.
The BOJ has left rates steady since, and political turmoil after Japan’s ruling coalition lost its majority in October’s snap election further complicates the picture.
Markets see a 25 bps rate hike as more likely than not by January.
(Reporting by Alun John and Dhara Ranasinghe; Editing by Alexander Smith)
Comments