By Diego Oré
MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexico’s migration agencies are facing a budget crunch that leaves them poorly placed to handle the mass deportations promised by President-elect Donald Trump, two Mexican government sources said, adding to concerns about the country’s preparedness.
The two sources, involved in the early planning around possible deportations, said proposed budget cuts to the main areas of government expected to handle the repatriation of migrants living in the U.S. illegally will leave them hamstrung.
“We are not going to have much room to maneuver to deal with such a large flow (of migrants) with such a reduced budget,” said one of the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Although it remains unclear how many people Trump might deport, nearly half of the estimated 11 million immigrants in the U.S. illegally at the start of 2022 were Mexican, according to a U.S. Department of Homeland Security report.
In recent years, Mexico has received upwards of 200,000 Mexicans a year deported from U.S., according to Mexican government data, but Trump’s plans would mean a significant jump in that number.
It is also likely the Trump administration will pressure Mexico to receive migrants from other countries such as Venezuela, Haiti and Nicaragua to which the U.S. struggles to deport people.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has said she has a plan for receiving Mexican nationals that are deported, but has given little detail on what it involves or how it will be funded.
“There is a part that has to do with the consulates, another part that has to do with the work we will have to do in Mexico. We hope that it does not happen, but if it does happen, we will be prepared to receive them,” the president said on Thursday.
Sheinbaum inherited a budget deficit of nearly 6%, the highest since the 1980s, and has vowed to bring public finances under control with the specter of a credit rating downgrade looming.
But that has meant cuts almost across the board.
According to the proposed budget for 2025, the National Institute of Migration (INM) and the Mexican Commission for Refugee Assistance (COMAR) – will receive about $85 million, 10% less than this year.
By comparison, this year Mexico’s migration institute has already spent nearly $68 million just on contracts with airlines and bus companies to move non-Mexican migrants away from the U.S. border, as part of a expanded strategy to contain migration.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which played a significant role in migration policy during the tenure of former President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (2018-2024), is also set to face an 8% budget cut for 2025. And the National Guard, a militarized law enforcement force that has been used to police migrants in Mexico, is due to have its budget slashed by almost half.
The budget still needs to be approved by Congress and could be changed.
Mexico’s presidency, migration institute, and refugee assistance commission did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
When a Mexican is deported from the U.S., they are received by INM agents before being transferred to temporary shelters or their town of origin.
With the support of private companies, Mexican authorities attempt to find jobs for deportees through various government programs.
The officials said Mexico’s government is working with the expectation that mass deportations take some time to be implemented in the U.S. allowing for Mexico to establish a more detailed plan.
On Thursday, president Sheinbaum said she hoped to reach an agreement with the Trump administration to ensure Mexico does not receive deportees from third countries in case of large-scale deportations from the United States.
Rafael Hernandez, a migration issues researcher at Colegio de la Frontera Norte (Colef), called the budget reduction “very worrying,” especially regarding COMAR, which will receive $2.3 million in 2025, 10% less than this year.
“It is a budget, by all accounts, insufficient, in the face of the growing arrival of people with international protection needs,” Hernandez said.
(Reporting by Diego Oré; additional reporting by Ana Isabel Martinez; Editing by Stephen Eisenhammer and Stephen Coates)
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