Sam Darnold closed out 2024 as one of the feel-good NFL stories of the year.
The 27-year-old journeyman had led Minnesota to a 14-2 record ahead of a Week 18 showdown against the Detroit Lions that would decide the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs.
There was talk of Darnold landing a Baker Mayfield-like contract as a free agent — either with the Vikings or with several teams expected to be in the market for a proven veteran quarterback.
Then it began to unravel, first with an 18-for-41 passing performance in a 31-9 beat down by the Lions. It went from bad to worse in the 27-9 playoff loss to the Los Angeles Rams, with Darnold throwing an interception, losing a fumble for a touchdown and absorbing an NFL playoff record-tying nine sacks.
His adjusted quarterback rating over those final two games was a dismal 17.4 and 13.4 while completing 53.1 percent of his passes.
Despite the tough outing against Detroit, Darnold was still being offered as the +300 favorite to be the Pittsburgh Steelers’ starting quarterback next season by one sportsbook on Monday. That was on the heels of the Steelers’ season coming to an end the night before, with Aaron Rodgers offered at +400 followed by current Pittsburgh quarterbacks Justin Fields (+500) and Russell Wilson (+600).
Then came Darnold’s meltdown against the Rams in which his struggles with pocket awareness and inconsistent accuracy were on full display. By Wednesday, Darnold’s odds of starting Week 1 of next season for the Steelers had dropped to +500.
Wilson is now the +200 favorite to keep the job, followed by Fields (+400), Darnold and NFL draft entrants Jalen Milroe (+800) and Quinn Ewers (+800).
As color analyst Troy Aikman said on Monday night’s broadcast, Darnold may have actually done the Vikings a favor moving forward with his poor showing.
He is set to become a free agent after playing on a one-year, $10 million contract this offseason. Instead of cashing in big on what had been a breakout seventh season, there are many coaches and general managers who will now question Darnold’s true value.
The Vikings’ promising season evaporated with a pair of nine-point efforts against two of the NFC’s best teams.
Darnold elevated to the starting job when rookie J.J. McCarthy suffered a torn meniscus in August. He finished the regular season in the top five in the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns and despite the consecutive losses to end the season, Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell said the team must evaluate “Sam’s body of work.”
Several factors will be in play. First is the money Darnold will command on the open market, which could be increased by what is perceived to be a weak quarterback draft class. Secondly is the health and development of McCarthy.
Minnesota could place the franchise tag on Darnold, which would be in the neighborhood of $41.4 million, according to Over The Cap. But the Vikings also have numerous pending free agents on defense to contend with as well.
The team could go several routes with Darnold: franchise him, sign him to a long-term contract or let him walk away.
For now, McCarthy is the -165 favorite to open next season as Minnesota’s starting quarterback. Darnold is being offered at +120, followed by anyone else at +700.
Should Darnold sign elsewhere, the Steelers do remain the favorites.
SAM DARNOLD NEXT TEAM ODDS*
(If he leaves the Vikings)
Steelers (+500)
Raiders (+11/2)
Saints (+600)
Giants (+13/2)
Colts (+700)
Jets (+700)
Seahawks (+700)
Browns (+1200)
Dolphins (+1200)
Titans (+1200)
*Odds provided by SportsBetting.ag for entertainment purposes only
If the Vikings do retain Darnold, it promises to be an intriguing quarterback battle with McCarthy throughout the offseason.
Minnesota has questions to address on defense and along the offensive line, but they have arguably the best receiving tandem in the NFL with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison to go along with tight end T.J. Hockenson and a solid ground game.
McCarthy was drafted No. 10 overall to be the quarterback of the future, but he’s recovering from a major knee injury and has yet to take a regular-season NFL snap.
“It’s not my job to say who is going to be the quarterback or who do I want to be the quarterback,” Jefferson said on Monday.
–Field Level Media
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