The first 12-team College Football Playoff comes to a conclusion when Ohio State and Notre Dame meet on Monday night.
In the previous four-team format, neither the No. 7 seed Fighting Irish (14-1) nor the eighth-seeded Buckeyes (13-2) would have made the CFP. Now, two of the most storied programs in college football history will battle it out for the title in Atlanta.
ODDS AND TRENDS
The Buckeyes are consensus 9.0-point favorites across regulated sportsbooks. The line on Monday was sitting at 9.5 at BetRivers, where the public has been split — backing Ohio State with 51 percent of the total spread-line bets but Notre Dame with 53 percent of the money.
However, it’s clear the public is expecting the Buckeyes to win the game outright, with their -455 moneyline drawing 65 percent of the bets and 53 percent of the money.
Meanwhile, BetMGM has seen the line shift from 9.5 to 8.5, leading to Ohio State commanding 55 percent of the spread-line bets and 64 percent of their money. The public has been split equally in the moneyline, backing the Buckeyes (-400) and Fighting Irish (+310) equally in terms of money wagered.
“If you include the futures market, we’ll be fine with either team taking home the trophy but Notre Dame moneyline betting will surely become an overall negative result by kickoff,” BetMGM senior sportsbook trader Michael Ranftle said.
One thing that has not been split is the total points line market.
Sitting at 45.0 at BetRivers, the Over has been backed by 76 percent of the money. The market has held steady at 45.5 at BetMGM, where the Over has drawn 74 percent of the money.
PROP PICKS
–Buckeyes QB Will Howard Over 225.0 Passing Yards (-205 at DraftKings): The speed of Notre Dame’s defense has been one of the storylines throughout this year’s CFP. So, too, has been the growth of Howard in Ohio State’s offense. He has averaged 306.3 passing yards through three CFP games, leading to this being the most popular player prop at the book.
–Fighting Irish RB Jeremiyah Love Under 42.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at BetMGM): Love leads Notre Dame with 1,122 rushing yards this season, but Notre Dame’s offense has fallen largely on the hands and legs of quarterback Riley Leonard of late. Love rushed for a combined 65 yards on just 17 carries in the past two games while dealing with a knee injury.
MATCHUP TO WATCH
Texas limited explosive Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith to one catch for 3 yards in the semifinals after he racked up 13 receptions for 290 yards and four touchdowns in the Buckeyes’ first two playoff wins over Tennessee and Oregon.
Texas put as many as three defenders around Smith to keep him in check, but Ohio State prevailed 28-14 at the Cotton Bowl on Jan. 10 at Arlington, Texas.
Buckeyes offensive coordinator Chip Kelly gave no indication that Smith was rattled by his unusually quiet game. Instead, it seems like he is focused on helping Ohio State win its first national title in 10 years.
“He’s always a forward-looking guy; what’s next, what’s the next challenge and what do we get to do?” Kelly said.
Smith’s 1,227 receiving yards are the seventh-most in the nation, but Notre Dame has a star freshman of its own that could help make life difficult again for the touted receiver on Monday night.
Cornerback Leonard Moore, who was named the Freshman Defensive Player of the Year on Wednesday by the Football Writers Association of America, has tallied 10 pass breakups and two interceptions for the Fighting Irish.
Moore logged only one tackle in Notre Dame’s 27-24 semifinal win over Penn State on Jan. 9 but had two passes defended in a 23-10 quarterfinal victory over Georgia one week earlier.
The Fighting Irish pride themselves on playing man coverage, and Moore made it clear that will remain the case on Monday.
“A lot of teams have gone to a zone mindset when playing them,” he said. “I think Penn State played a decent amount of man because that’s their identity. Going into this game, we’re not going to change who we are. We’re going to play man coverage like we do every week.”
Smith’s slow night against Texas allowed Ohio State’s other weapons to contribute. Carnell Tate had seven catches for 87 yards and running back TreVeyon Henderson took a screen pass 75 yards for a score.
“They came out and bracketed (Smith) and everyone else had to win and do their job. That’s exactly what we did,” Tate said. “When (Smith) does his job, it opens it up for us. When we do our job, it opens it up for (Smith).”
Tate is regarded as the Buckeyes’ third-best receiver behind Smith (14 touchdowns on 71 receptions) and Emeka Egbuka (75 receptions, 947 yards, 10 touchdowns).
“You’re not going to be able to stop their receivers totally,” Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman said. “They’re a talented bunch. So, we’ll come up with a plan and be able to adapt and adjust based off what’s going on in the game.”
THE NEWS
Freeman’s squad will also have to deal with Ohio State quarterback Will Howard, who has completed 73.9 percent of his passes (65 of 88) for 919 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions in the Buckeyes’ three playoff games.
The Fighting Irish secured their three-point win at the Orange Bowl in Miami Gardens, Fla., on Mitch Jeter’s 41-yard field goal with 12 seconds remaining. That the field goal came after a Notre Dame interception was not surprising.
The Fighting Irish have plucked 19 picks this season, the fifth-most in FBS. They also rank second in pass defense (165.3 yards per game) and scoring defense (14.3 points allowed per game).
The team above them in the latter two categories? Ohio State.
The Buckeyes allow just 251.1 total yards and 12.2 points per game and present the ultimate test to a Notre Dame offense led by quarterback Riley Leonard.
The Duke transfer hasn’t had an explosive playoff like Howard, completing 67.1 percent of his throws (53 of 79) for 514 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions, but Leonard can extend plays with his legs. He has added 145 rushing yards and two scores on 43 carries during the playoffs.
Leonard has 866 rushing yards on the season.
INJURY REPORT
The Fighting Irish’s line may be a bit more fragile without left tackle Anthonie Knapp, who will miss the championship due to a high-ankle sprain sustained during the Penn State game. Tosh Baker is expected to replace Knapp and make his first start of the season.
Ohio State cornerback Denzel Burke, who did not play in the second half against Texas because of an upper-body injury, should be good for Monday, according to defensive coordinator Jim Knowles.
PREDICTION
The Buckeyes boast arguably the nation’s most dominating defensive line. Notre Dame will struggle in the trenches offensively, especially minus Knapp. That will make for tough sledding for four quarters, with the Buckeyes steadily pulling away in the second half while controlling time of possession and field position.
–Ohio State 27, Notre Dame 19
–Field Level Media
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