By Gavin Maguire
LITTLETON, Colorado (Reuters) – Growing tension across Europe’s electricity markets has sharpened focus on the region’s most dependable and integrated exporter of clean power: France.
France is the largest supplier of clean electricity to Europe’s top electricity importers, and has played a critical role in helping to cap regional electricity costs in recent years by exporting record volumes of clean power.
France’s status as a key electricity supplier may now become even more important after the government of Norway – another major electricity exporter – lost a key coalition partner last week in a dispute over European Union (EU) energy policies.
Norway’s eurosceptic Centre Party, which held eight of Norway’s 20 cabinet positions, quit the government over disagreements on the adoption of EU energy directives tied to greater output and use of renewable power.
The coalition breakdown leaves Norway’s Labour Party to rule alone until planned elections in September, and raises questions about whether Norway will remain a major clean power exporter.
Labour trails in polls to more conservative parties that are against adopting strict energy export targets.
That potential decline in Norway’s power exports means that Europe’s largest electricity importers – which include Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom – look set to become even more reliant on France for supplies.
GROWING DEPENDENCE
Electricity import needs across Europe have surged since 2022, when Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine snarled natural gas flows across the region and forced power firms to increase imports to replace lost local power output.
Scores of households and offices across Europe have switched from gas boilers to electric heating systems, while the regional transportation fleet and industry are becoming increasingly electrified.
Within mainland Europe, Germany has become particularly dependent on electricity imports, and in 2024 imported nearly six times more electricity than it averaged annually from 2015 to 2021, according to data portal energy-charts.info.
Italy, which has been Europe’s top power importer for years, increased electricity imports by around 20% from the 2015-2021 average to new highs in 2024.
The United Kingdom also posted record electricity imports in 2024, which were roughly 100% above the 2015 to 2021 average.
COMMON DENOMINATOR
In 2024, France was the single largest electricity supplier to the United Kingdom and Germany, and the second-largest supplier to Italy after Switzerland.
Norway was the second largest electricity supplier to the UK last year, and the fourth largest supplier to Germany.
If Norway’s power flows start to decline going forward, major importers will be forced to rely more on France and other suppliers.
FRANCE AT FULL FLOW
The key risk for Europe’s top electricity importers is the potential downturn in output in France and in other large electricity exporters including Switzerland and Denmark.
France started 2025 with the largest monthly power output total in more than three years, at 75,577 gigawatt hours (GWh), according to LSEG.
That total was roughly 5% above January 2024, and 37% above the average monthly output from 2022 to 2024.
The key driver behind this output surge has been France’s nuclear network, which bumped production by 8% from January 2024 to the highest since at least the start of 2022.
The completion of key plant maintenance and the start-up of a new reactor have been key factors behind the nuclear output gains, and should allow France’s nuclear power stations to sustain relatively high production rates going forward.
However, ongoing issues with corrosion at older plants mean that drops in overall production cannot be ruled out later in 2025, especially if the availability of cooling water from rivers is impeded by warm weather in the summer.
Europe’s total electricity supplies could also be affected by any downturn in hydro power output in Switzerland and Austria.
Regional hydro output scaled record levels in 2024 following floods during the summer, and allowed for Switzerland and Austria to boost electricity exports from the year before.
However, snow coverage across Europe’s main alpine regions remains below the long-term average so far in 2025, and may limit hydro production later in the year.
An extension to the current spell of below-normal wind speeds is another threat to regional electricity supplies.
Germany, Europe’s top wind power producer, is in the midst of a multi-month stretch of low wind speeds, while wind output in Denmark – one of Europe’s top power exporters – dropped by 20% in January 2025 from January 2024 levels, LSEG data shows.
Any further below-par wind output in northern Europe may not only reduce exportable supplies from Denmark but also increase the import needs of Germany, and place even greater pressure on France to sustain its high levels of electricity exports.
The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.
(Reporting By Gavin Maguire; Editing by Kate Mayberry)
Comments