TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s core consumer price inflation likely accelerated in January from the previous month and rose at the joint-fastest pace in 17 months due to high food prices and reduced energy subsidy, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.
The core consumer price index (CPI), which includes oil products but excludes fresh food prices, was expected to have risen 3.1% in January from a year earlier, a poll of 18 economists showed.
That compared with December’s 3% rise and would be the joint largest year-on-year increase since August 2023 when it was 3.1%.
“With food prices continuing to rise and government subsidies to oil refiners being reduced, the year-on-year increase is expected to widen from the previous month,” said Shunpei Fujita, an economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting.
The prices of rice, vegetables and other basic necessities have soared in recent months, and the government has said it will release 210,000 metric tons of stockpiled rice to ease distribution clogging and stabilise prices.
The internal affairs ministry will release January CPI data at 8:30 a.m. on February 21 (2330 GMT on February 20).
The poll also showed exports were expected to have climbed 7.9% in January from a year earlier, picking up from a 2.8% increase in December.
Imports were estimated to have expanded 9.7% in January from a year earlier, resulting in a trade deficit of 2.1 trillion yen ($13.76 billion). Imports rose 1.8% in December.
“The trade balance is significantly in deficit in January, as exports tend to be seasonally low,” said Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute.
Machinery orders, a highly volatile but leading indicator of capital spending for the coming six to nine months, probably edged up 0.1% in December from the previous month, following a 3.4% gain in November, according to the poll.
The government will release the trade and machinery orders data at 8:50 a.m. on February 19 (2350 GMT on February 18).
($1 = 152.6300 yen)
(Reporting by Satoshi Sugiyama; Editing by Jamie Freed)
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