BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – Argentina’s monthly inflation rate likely rose in February, slightly higher than the figure recorded in January, a Reuters poll of analysts showed ahead of data due on Friday.
The consumer price index (CPI) is expected to have risen 2.4% in February, according to the median estimate from 24 analysts surveyed by Reuters. If confirmed, that would mark an increase from January’s 2.2%.
Argentina, a major grains exporter and emerging energy producer, has been grappling with triple-digit inflation in recent years, earning the dubious distinction of having the world’s highest annual inflation rate.
That annual rate neared 300% early last year but has since declined, ending 2024 at 118%. Monthly inflation, which peaked around 25% in December 2023, has been in the 2%-3% range since October 2024.
“The government’s goal of breaking the 2% barrier has not been fully realized, and in February, inflation may have even accelerated,” said consulting firm Eco Go in a report.
“Efforts to slow inflation included lowering the crawling peg to 1%, intervening in the exchange rate gap, and the discretionary updating of tariffs – which remained considerably below inflation – all aimed at moderating the indicator, but with limited success,” Eco Go added.
A Market Expectations Survey (REM) conducted by Argentina’s central bank (BCRA) among specialists forecast a 2.3% inflation rate for February, with a 2% rate expected for March.
The foundation Libertad y Progreso (LyP) noted that during the first half of February, CPI increases were below January’s, leading to expectations of a slowdown in inflation.
“However, in the second half of the month, increases exceeded expectations, largely driven by higher prices in Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages, particularly meat,” it said.
Analysts surveyed expect inflation to see a slight acceleration in March.
“Despite the downward trend (of the CPI), a slowdown is not expected in March. The start of the school year and the reactivation of key sectors could generate some seasonal pressure on prices,” said Clara Alesina, economist at LyP.
(Reporting by Hernan Nessi and Walter Bianchi, Writing by Natalia Siniawski; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
Comments