A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee
A possible de-escalation of trade tensions between Beijing and Washington provided a fillip for markets on Friday, boosting risk sentiment and lifting stocks globally just as earnings from Apple delivered a reminder of the trade war’s true cost.
China’s Commerce Ministry said that Beijing was “evaluating” an offer from Washington to hold talks over U.S. President Donald Trump’s 145% tariffs and that Beijing’s door was open for discussions. At the same time, however, China said Washington needed to show “sincerity” in negotiations and should be prepared to cancel its unilateral tariffs.
The prospect of trade talks helped to allay investor worries over the tariffs, which have roiled global markets and sparked fears of an economic downturn. Data for the world’s two biggest economies has started to show signs of weakness.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures surged, while European bourses were set for a strong open ahead of a flurry of corporate earnings, headlined by oil major Shell and German chemicals group BASF.
The earnings season so far has highlighted the cost of erratic U.S. trade policy and its back-and-forth tariffs, which prompted many companies across the globe to lower their profit forecasts or withdraw them altogether.
Apple on Thursday cut its share buyback programme by $10 billion and warned that tariffs could add about $900 million in costs this quarter, dimming some of the optimism that followed strong results from Microsoft and Meta Platform.
Apple CEO Tim Cook also outlined how the iPhone maker has started to stockpile products so that the majority of its devices sold in the U.S. this quarter will not come from China.
And while markets seem to be taking comfort from Friday’s comments out of Beijing, the reality is that there still has not been a resolution in any of the trade talks that the U.S. has held so far with its allies.
That was particularly evident when Japan’s finance minister said on Friday the country could use its $1 trillion-plus holdings of U.S. Treasuries as a card in trade talks with Washington, raising explicitly for the first time its leverage as a massive creditor of the United States.
Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:
Economic events: April flash inflation data for euro zone, April manufacturing PMI data for France and Germany
Earnings: ING, BASF, NatWest, Shell
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(By Ankur Banerjee; Editing by Edmund Klamann)
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