TOKYO (Reuters) -Japan’s economy probably grew marginally in April-June due to resilient consumption and net exports, managing to avoid a technical recession, or two straight quarters of contraction, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.
Gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms expanded an annualised 0.4% in the second quarter, according to the median forecast of 16 economists, following an annualised 0.2% drop in the first quarter.
Without annualisation, the second-quarter growth rate was estimated at 0.1%.
Japan’s GDP “likely achieved positive growth for the first time in two quarters, supported by resilient domestic demand … and a slight recovery in external demand,” said Shinichiro Kobayashi, principal economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting.
Private consumption, which accounts for more than half Japan’s GDP, probably grew 0.1% in April-June, at the same rate as in January-March, despite a prolonged period of high consumer inflation.
But capital expenditure growth was seen slowing to 0.5% from the previous quarter’s 1.1%.
External demand or net exports, which is exports minus imports, probably added 0.2 percentage points to the second-quarter GDP growth, after it shaved 0.8 points in the first quarter.
Although Japanese exports decreased year-on-year in May and June, led by falling car shipments to the United States amid President Donald Trump’s tariffs, a faster decline in imports was likely to have resulted in a positive net export contribution in April-June quarter, analysts said.
On Thursday, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady but offered a less gloomy economic outlook after Japan reached a trade deal with the U.S. last week to lower levies on Japanese exports. A majority of analysts expected an additional rate hike by year-end in a Reuters survey last month.
The government will release the April-June GDP data on August 15 at 8:50 a.m. (2350 GMT on August 14).
(Reporting by Kantaro Komiya; Editing by Kate Mayberry)
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