(Reuters) -Argentina’s embattled bonds, stocks and peso currency gained for a third day on Wednesday after more details were shared on U.S. support for the reform push by the South American government under President Javier Milei.
Below are comments from analysts on the latest developments:
KIMBERLEY SPERRFECHTER, EMERGING MARKETS ECONOMIST, CAPITAL ECONOMICS
“U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s renewed pledge to ‘do what is needed’ to support Argentina in a post on X earlier today, including purchases of Argentinian sovereign U.S. dollar bonds and a potential $20 billion credit line, should give Argentina’s government breathing space ahead of the midterm elections in October. Crucially, though, it doesn’t solve the country’s underlying issues, in particular the misaligned exchange rate.”
“The latest developments suggest that the Trump administration is willing to go a long way in supporting its allies while taking the opposite approach towards countries that it deems aren’t.”
THOMAS HAUGAARD, PORTFOLIO MANAGER EM DEBT, JANUS HENDERSON
“There are several angles to this, but the $20 billion itself is a high number. So people are definitely more comfortable with the U.S. support, and that number is enough for it to be a meaningful circuit breaker in terms of the kind of vicious spiral that you were seeing, where you had the FX pressure, a bond selloff and FX reserves going down.”
“Concern about a repayment capacity, default risk and depleting reserves – definitely the worst-case scenario there – is taken off the table, and that’s why you’ve seen bonds rally.”
EDUARDO ORDONEZ BUESO, EMERGING MARKETS DEBT PORTFOLIO MANAGER, BANKINVEST
“This is part of the alliances being built between the U.S. and Argentina, because Argentina has a lot of natural resources and Argentina has a nice remote position for military bases. Argentina has a dynamic economy as part of the Western world and it’s a good place to push China out of the continent. China has made a lot of progress in the country and they have a military base and a lot of trade.”
“So the Argentine officials, knowing that what they sell is a game of expectations, that what they do is try to simulate animal spirits and provide a confidence shock and then hope that the shock is self-fulfilling.”
ALEJO CZERWONKO, CIO FOR EMERGING MARKETS IN THE AMERICAS, UBS
“This degree of U.S. support for Argentina was beyond what any analyst could have imagined just a few weeks ago. It stands among the strongest examples of U.S. Treasury backing in the history of emerging markets.”
AARON GIFFORD, SENIOR EM SOVEREIGN ANALYST, T. ROWE PRICE
“It’s hard to know if this will influence the midterm results but certainly it improves Milei’s negotiating power with governors and offers the country more firepower to defend itself in the case of an adverse outcome. As a result, tail risks have been significantly reduced, and the rally should continue at least in the near term.”
(Reporting by Shashwat Chauhan, Nikhil Sharma, Johann Cherian, Karin Strohecker, Rodrigo Campos; Editing by Marguerita Choy)
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