By Dan Peleschuk
KYIV (Reuters) -Moldova holds a high-stakes parliamentary election on Sunday that could determine the fate of its bid to join the European Union, amid what officials have described as a subversive Russian campaign to sway the vote and sabotage the effort.
The country of 2.4 million people has faced multiple crises since Russia’s 2022 invasion of neighbouring Ukraine that have tested the pro-European government, which sees membership of the 27-member bloc as critical to breaking free from Moscow’s orbit.
Recent polls suggest the ruling pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) could struggle to keep its majority and would need to seek a coalition with others in the 101-seat legislature.
Opposition forces such as the pro-Russian Patriotic Bloc and the nominally pro-European Alternative alliance are courting voters bothered by high prices, slow reforms and scepticism over closer ties with Europe.
Moscow denies meddling in Moldova’s affairs and says Chisinau is stoking anti-Russian sentiment for political purposes.
COALITION COULD HINDER EUROPEAN INTEGRATION
Any coalition would likely complicate President Maia Sandu’s push for Moldova to join the EU by 2030, which would require extensive legislative work. A 2024 referendum on EU membership only just cleared a 50% majority.
“If we have a coalition, you can forget swift European integration given the options for … partners,” said a former senior official, speaking anonymously to give a frank assessment.
Brussels has vocally backed Sandu and considers a pro-European Moldova, which applied for EU membership in 2022 alongside Ukraine, key to snuffing out Russian influence on its eastern flank.
In August, the leaders of France, Germany and Poland visited Chisinau to underline their support for the government’s EU bid.
SANDU SAYS ‘EUROPEAN FUTURE IN DANGER’
Moldova has a Romanian-speaking majority and a large Russian-speaking minority, and political power has alternated for decades between pro-Russian and pro-European groups. Russian troops are stationed in a separatist region that broke from Chisinau’s control in a brief war in the early 1990s.
Sandu has described the vote as Moldova’s most consequential election ever. Addressing the nation on Monday, she said Russia was spending hundreds of millions of euros to sway the vote and recruiting hundreds of people to stir disorder.
“Today, with utmost seriousness, I tell you: our sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity, and European future are in danger,” she said.
Moldovan police have stepped up searches in recent weeks into illegal party financing. On Monday, security forces arrested 74 people in sweeping raids over alleged Russian-backed efforts to stoke unrest. Officials said Russian intelligence was training Moldovan citizens in Serbia on protest tactics.
Patriotic Bloc co-leader Igor Dodon, a former president, said some members of his alliance were targeted.
“The criminal PAS regime is trying to intimidate us, frighten the people, and silence us,” Dodon said in a statement.
Last month, fugitive tycoon Ilan Shor, sanctioned by the United States and EU as an alleged Russian agent, openly offered Moldovans monthly payments of $3,000 to join anti-government protests.
DOMESTIC WOES
Voters will head into the election after years of economic malaise – largely from the war in Ukraine and an energy crunch sparked by Russian cuts to critical gas supplies.
Moldova, among Europe’s poorest countries, has met most of its power needs by importing more expensive energy from neighbouring Romania. While down from double digits in 2022, inflation still hovers around 7%. Many voters are bitter.
“People don’t see, in their daily lives, the benefits of EU accession,” said Anastasia Pociumban of the German Council on Foreign Relations.
Meanwhile, corruption remains persistent and reforms in key areas like the justice system have moved slowly.
PAS rode to power after a landslide vote in 2021 on a pledge to improve governance and clean up corruption. But economic grievances and the government’s shortcomings have been exploited by pro-Russian propaganda targeting various parts of the electorate, said Eugen Muravschi, a researcher at the WatchDog.MD think-tank in Chisinau.
“The main goal is to mobilise pro-Russian voters, to demotivate and demobilise pro-European voters, and to create confusion among the undecided voters.”
The country’s large diaspora will have an impact on the outcome: voters abroad are not reflected in polling data but usually back pro-European parties.
(Additional reporting by Alexander Tanas and Alexandru Fedas in Chisinau; Editing by Mike Collett-White and Peter Graff)
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