March 4 (Reuters) – UBS on Wednesday raised its average Brent crude oil price forecasts for the first quarter and full year 2026, citing escalating conflict in the Middle East and the current near de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The bank now sees the Brent price averaging $71 per barrel in the first quarter, implying around $80 a barrel in March, and at $72 per barrel in 2026, a $10 increase from its previous forecast.
The bank said it was leaving its forecasts for later years unchanged at this stage at $70 for 2027 and $75 for 2028, but risk would be to the upside.
UBS said strikes on regional energy infrastructure like Qatar LNG could lift Brent above $90/bbl, with a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure potentially driving prices past $100.
While a near-term de-escalation could unwind some of the risk premium, the bank said prices are unlikely to retreat to the $60/bbl level seen at the start of the year.
Brent was trading near $82.32/bbl, after closing on Tuesday at its highest since January 2025. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at around $74.73/bbl, after settling at its highest since June.
(Reporting by Anjana Anil and Sarah Qureshi; Editing by Jan Harvey, Kirsten Donovan)
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