MEXICO CITY, April 7 (Reuters) – Mexico’s headline inflation likely accelerated in March for the third straight month while core inflation likely declined, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday, backing bets that the central bank will again cut its benchmark interest rate.
Headline inflation in Latin America’s second-largest economy likely hit 4.63% in the third month of 2026 compared to a year earlier, up from 4.02% in February.
This would mark its highest level since October 2024 and move the indicator away from the central bank’s target of 3%, plus or minus one percentage point.
However, core inflation, which is considered a better measure because it strips out highly volatile products, is expected to have declined for a second month running to 4.46%, from 4.50% the prior month.
This would bring it down to its lowest level so far this year, but still above the central bank’s target.
Mexico’s national statistics agency INEGI is set to publish the data on Thursday.
The central bank last month resumed its easing cycle, bringing down its rate to 6.75% from a prior 7%, and said that going forward it would assess the “appropriateness and timing” of potential future cuts.
The decision surprised the market, which had expected another hold in respond to risks to global inflation tied to the conflict in the Middle East.
Last week, the bank’s Governor Victoria Rodriguez said the adjustment period was nearing its end.
A recent central bank survey of private sector analysts estimated that the rate will close 2026 at 6.5%, implying just one more 25 basis point cut at some point this year.
(Reporting by Gabriel Burin en Buenos Aires and Noe Torres in Mexico City; Editing by Alistair Bell)
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